- Titel
- Using Direct and Indirect Estimates for Alcohol-Attributable Mortality
- Untertitel
- A Modelling Study Using the Example of Lithuania
- Zitierfähige Url:
- https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa2-967030
- Quellenangabe
- European Addiction Research
Erscheinungsjahr: 2023
Jahrgang: 29
Heft: 2
Seiten: 119-126
E-ISSN: 1421-9891 - Erstveröffentlichung
- 2023
- Abstract (EN)
- Introduction: Comparative risk assessments (CRAs) for alcohol use are based on indirect estimates of attributable harm, and usually combine country-specific exposure estimates and global risk relations derived from meta-analyses. CRAs for Eastern European countries, such as Lithuania, base their risk relations not on global risk relations, but on a large Russian cohort study. The availability of a direct estimate of alcohol-attributable mortality following the 2017 implementation of a large increase in alcohol excise taxes in Lithuania has allowed a comparison of these indirect estimates with a country-specific gold standard. Methods: A statistical modelling study compared direct (predictions based on a time-series methodology) and indirect (predictions based on an attributable-fraction methodology) estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality before and after a large increase in alcohol excise taxes in Lithuania. Specifically, Russia-specific versus global relative risks were compared against the gold standard of time-series based predictions. Results: Compared to direct estimates, indirect estimates markedly underestimated the reduction of alcohol-attributable mortality 12 months post intervention by at least 63%. While both of the indirect estimates differed markedly from the direct estimates, the Russia-specific estimates were closer to the direct estimates, primarily due to higher estimates for alcohol-attributable cardiovascular mortality. Discussion: As all indirect estimates were markedly lower than direct estimates, current overall relative risks and price elasticities should be re-evaluated. In particular, global estimates should be replaced by new regional estimates based on cohort studies.
- Andere Ausgabe
- Link zum Artikel, der zuerst in der Zeitschrift „European Addiction Research” im Verlag Karger erschienen ist.
DOI: 10.1159/000529200 - Verweis
- Ergänzendes Material ist unter folgendem Link zu finden.
Link: https://karger.com/ear/article/29/2/119/835974/Using-Direct-and-Indirect-Estimates-for-Alcohol#13684356 - Freie Schlagwörter (EN)
- Alcohol use, Mortality, Causes of death, Alcohol-attributable fraction, Risk relations
- Klassifikation (DDC)
- 150
- 610
- Verlag
- Karger, Basel
- Version / Begutachtungsstatus
- publizierte Version / Verlagsversion
- URN Qucosa
- urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa2-967030
- Veröffentlichungsdatum Qucosa
- 06.11.2025
- Dokumenttyp
- Artikel
- Sprache des Dokumentes
- Englisch
- Lizenz / Rechtehinweis
CC BY 4.0