- Titel
- RTA exit and trade: Evidence from losing shared trade agreement coverage
- Zitierfähige Url:
- https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa2-1055144
- Schriftenreihe
- CEPIE Working Paper
- Bandnummer
- 01/26
- Erstveröffentlichung
- 2026
- ISSN
- 2510-1196
- Abstract (EN)
- This paper provides the first global empirical evidence on the trade effects of losing shared regional trade agreement (RTA) coverage. Moving beyond single RTA exit cases, I study worldwide bilateral trade flows from 1980 to 2016 and estimate the effect of de-coverage using a structural gravity model together with a heterogeneity-robust staggered difference-in-differences design. I find that de-coverage reduces bilateral trade by about 37% on average, a magnitude similar to the gains from RTA formation. A key contrast with the RTA entry literature is its dynamics: while trade gains from RTA formation build up gradually over time, the adjustment to de-coverage is front-loaded. Heterogeneity analysis shows larger losses for dyads with longer prior RTA histories, geographically distant partners, and country pairs with asymmetric income levels. Product-level estimates show declines concentrated in intermediate and consumption goods.
- Freie Schlagwörter (EN)
- Trade Agreements, RTA Coverage Loss, Trade Disintegration, Structural Gravity, Staggered Difference-in-Differences
- Klassifikation (DDC)
- 330
- Klassifikation (RVK)
- QC 000
- Publizierende Institution
- Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics
- URN Qucosa
- urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa2-1055144
- Veröffentlichungsdatum Qucosa
- 25.06.2026
- Dokumenttyp
- Forschungsbericht
- Sprache des Dokumentes
- Englisch
- Lizenz / Rechtehinweis
